11:00 AM
The Mobile
By John C. Dvorak
BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) â€" A number of developments in the mobile phone space should give investors pause.
First of all, Nielsen released some humorous market data showing that the old Windows mobile platform, which isn’t even supported by Microsoft Corp. /quotes/zigman/20493/quotes/nls/msft MSFT +2.65%  anymore, has more market share than the Windows Phone 7 OS which has been in the market for well over a year.
Android, meanwhile, has over half the market, with the iPhone /quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL +1.01%  at 34%. The iPhone does remain the gold standard for smart phones and the one most “hip†people use.
At Nokia /quotes/zigman/162154/quotes/nls/nok NOK -2.13%  , it’s gotten so hinkey that a slew of hotshot employees decided to bail from the company with the moribund Nokia MeeGo OS. The new company, Jolla Ltd., expects to roll out a new line of mobile phones designed to compete with Nokia.
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The irony here is that the company was seed funded by Nokia as part of its bridge plan for employees who left the company and need help getting funding for a new business. The employees are all highly regarded.
MeeGo began as a Linux-based joint venture between Nokia and Intel Corp. /quotes/zigman/20392/quotes/nls/intc INTC +2.06% It ended up with the Linux Foundation until September of last year and now seems to be taken over by Jolla.
The new kid on the block insofar as an open source Linux phone OS is concerned is now Tizen which is derived in some ways from MeeGo and has Intel, Samsung and Sprint Nextel /quotes/zigman/240259/quotes/nls/s S +4.06% Â as part of the team.
If this isn’t wild enough, we have talk that Amazon.com Inc. /quotes/zigman/63011/quotes/nls/amzn AMZN +1.41%  is apparently jumping into the mix with a so-called Kindle phone. This will undoubtedly run an Android variation the way the Kindle Fire runs an Android variation.
Except for the Kindle phone, which Amazon can muscle through its channel, I have little hope for any of the players in this space other than Apple and Google.
I say this because we have watched very successful companies with a lot of resources try and break the duopoly with zero success. Watching Microsoft struggle as this is written is but the latest attempt.
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Let’s not forget Palm’s attempt and RIM’s /quotes/zigman/18534/quotes/nls/rimm RIMM -2.36%  attempt.
If Amazon rolls out its Kindle phone, the sales numbers will probably be lumped in with Android, making the situation even worse.
Now it is possible that the creative Finlanders can begin fresh without the burden of Microsoft’s software, but they will have to team in some way with Google Inc. /quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/goog GOOG +1.06%  to do it.
The reality with Google, unlike Apple, is its main concern is not selling expensive hardware but making sure that Google owns the search functions of a phone, as well as navigation and advertising. If Jolla Ltd. was smart, it would be talking to Google now.
It’s always possible that we may see some new paradigm shift similar to the one Apple pulled off with its iPhone. I am not anticipating it. This new paradigm is still being perfected.
In other words I would not be investing in anything is this sector.
But, it might be interesting if Nokia made a big announcement that they are dropping Windows Phone 7 and moving to the Android OS. That would be a show stopper.
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